Cartas al editor
Sobre High prices inspire OPEC to develop more fields
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Original Message -----
From: Diego Gonzalez
To:Editor@petroleumworld.com
Sent: Monday, August 08, 2005 11:08 AM
Subject: Sobre High prices inspire OPEC to develop more fields
Distinguidos amigos, siento no compartir las opiniones de Nassir
Shirkhan ni del CERA sobre la oferta futura de la OPEP en esos
volúmenes, con la excepción de Arabia Saudita. Hay
un indicador sencillo. Sí los otros países OPEP
que el menciona, pudieran incrementar su producción en
las cifras mencionadas, lo estarían haciendo desde hace
varios años (y olvídense del mito de las cuotas
de producción a partir del 2000). El desarrollo de nuevos
campos, los proyectos de perforación y de recuperación
secundaria de inyección de agua y gas no se hacen de un
día para otro. Para tener esos volúmenes de producción
para 2010 ya se deberían estar construyendo los equipos
de perforación y las plantas de compresión de gas
y agua que se necesitarán en los próximos 5 años.
Si se estuvieran realizando el mundo petrolero lo conocería.
Ello para no hablar de las nuevas refinerías que deben
construirse, que ya deberían estar en progreso alrededor
del mundo (84 MMBD en 2005 a 100 MMBD en 2010).
Y
el mejor ejemplo es Venezuela, donde toda la producción
de los campos "tradicionales"están declinando
y lo que hay que hacer para incrementar la producción es
primeramente reactivar los más de 20.000 pozos que están
cerrados (tendrían que estarse licitando dichos campos
para ser desarrollados por el sector privado - sabiendo que PDVSA
no tiene la capacidad para reactivarlos), junto con el desarrollo
futuro de la Faja (única fuente para incrementar sustancialmente
la producción). Nada de esto se ve. Para esta fecha ya
deberían estar licitados los nuevos bloques de la Faja,
construyéndose por lo menos 3 o 4 plantas de mejoramiento
tipo Joses adicionales y contratándose decenas de nuevos
equipos de perforación horizontal.
Tres
datos que les pueden interesar:
Según BP en 2004 en el mundo se produjo un promedio de
80,3 millones diarios de barriles de petróleo (4,5% adicional
con respecto a 2003*). Ese año, con la excepción
de la ex-URSS la producción de los OECD disminuyó
en 1,9% y en el resto de los productores solo subió en
0,4%.
Según la EIA la producción promedio 2005 es de 84,3
millones de barriles diarios, un incremento de 4,98% a nivel mundial**.
Será necesario continuar este incremento anual (4,5 %),
mayormente por la OPEP, Rusia y África para que en 2010
la producción mundial pase de los 100,0 millones de barriles
(cálculos propios), ello para cumplir con los estimados
de consumo cercanos a los 100 millones de barriles diarios en
esa fecha*** (que pudiera ser más, todo dependiendo del
crecimiento de los EE.UU., China, India y otros países
en desarrollo).
Saludos
Diego
* http://www.bp.com/home.do
** http://www.eia.doe.gov/
*** http://www.energybulletin.net/3272.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
De: EVenezuela@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:EVenezuela@yahoogroups.com
Enviado el: Lunes, 08 de Agosto de 2005 06:11 a.m.
Para: energia
Asunto: [EVenezuela] Fw: High prices inspire OPEC to develop
more fields
Un breve
comentario.
Esta
noticia suministra mas combustible a favor de la tesis de CERA
sobre la posibilidad de una sobreoferta de petroleo antes de finales
de la decada y menos argumentos para quienes pronostican un pico
de produción y un período prolongado de precios
altos. Porque este cambio de comportamiento aparente en algunos
paises de OPEP? La respuesta corta es que mas vale ingreso mas
participacion de mercado, que reservas bajo tierra y agitacion
politica en la superficie. Arabia Saudita debe hacer frente a
un creciente deficit fiscal y a mayores demandas sociales, al
igual que otros países productores. La lógica demoledora
del costo marginal se termina imponiendo tarde o temprano y el
costo marginal favorece a los productores de menor costo y con
politicas de apertura. La otra lógica, es que tanto gobiernos
como empresas se benefician si el precio del petroleo es menos
volatil y el horizonte de planficación es mas estable,
sobre todo cuando se trata de proyectos de maduración lenta.
Falta ver si se daran las otras expansiones necesarias, sobretodo
en capacidad de transporte y refinación, un tema al que
Jose siempre esta atento. Venezuela, me temo, continuara cediendo
mercado y perdiendo otra oportunidad de desarrollo por seguir
empecinada en usar el "petroleo como arma" de fomento
de un orden inestable y empobrecedor. En economia, como en politica,
este "comportamiento irracional" tiene un precio muy
elevado.
Saludos
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High prices inspire OPEC to develop more fields
By
Nassir Shirkhan
Special to The Daily Star (Lebanon)
BEIRUT
Petroleumworld.com 08 08 05
OPEC
producers are embarking on a string of field developments as they
finally rise to the challenge of supplying extra crude volumes
after experiencing a severe investment drought for almost a decade
in the wake of low oil prices. Leading the pack is Saudi Arabia,
which sits on a quarter of the globe's crude reserves and is making
good on its promise of quenching the world's thirst for oil.
Other
Opec members such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Libya
are also taking advantage of both rising oil prices and a benign
political climate to tap into their massive reserves.
Saudi
Aramco's drilling expenditure is in top gear as part of a five-year
program to increase output capacity to 12.5 million barrels per
day (bpd) before the end of the decade.
Production
could even climb to 15 million bpd if required.
Fast-track
development projects include the onshore Khursaniyah fields cluster,
which will pump 500,000 bpd of Arab Light crude from 2007 and
the Khurais field, which envisages another 1.2 million bpd in
2009.
In
the near term, the final phase of the Haradh project is due for
completion by February 2006. This will add a further 300,000 bpd
to the scheme's current 600,000 bpd of Arab Light crude.
The
five-year plan also includes a 250,000 bpd expansion of the Shaybah
field, which produces Arab Extra Light. The onus is on the expansion
of light crude capacity as the Saudis try to meet refining demand
in the U.S. and elsewhere.
The
ongoing expansion drive follows completion of the Qatif and Abu
Safa project, which added 650,000 bpd to Saudi Arabia's capacity
late last year.
"At
Saudi Aramco, we're doing our part to provide the vital energy
that China and the rest of the world needs," Aramco's chief
executive Abdullah Jumah said recently in Beijing.
"We
already have in progress a half-dozen oil production projects
that represent a combined production capacity of more than 3 million
bpd, some of which will offset natural decline while the remainder
will serve to expand our total production capability."
Jumah
said Saudi Arabia has the ability to add a further 200 billion
barrels of oil to its current proven reserves of 260 billion barrels
- an illustration of the kingdom's awesome energy arsenal.
OPEC's
expansion plans have prompted experts to warn of an oil glut in
the years ahead as crude stockpiles swell on the back of rising
output.
Global
capacity is set to increase dramatically over the rest of this
decade, says Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).
"As
a result, supply could exceed demand by as much as 6 million to
7.5 million bpd later in the decade, a marked contrast to the
razor-sharp balance between strong demand growth and tight supply
that is currently reflected in high oil prices hovering around
$60 a barrel."
CERA
believes global capacity could climb by as much as 16 million
bpd between 2004 and 2010 - a 20 percent increase over the period.
Total
OPEC liquids capacity will expand significantly to 45.6 million
bpd in 2010 from 36.8 million bpd in 2004 with the proportion
of condensates and natural gas liquids rising to almost 18 percent
of total capacity.
"Post-2010,
OPEC has the hydrocarbon resources to continue expanding capacity
at a slightly lower rate than the current decade's 10.9 million
bpd growth. CERA believes OPEC will accelerate key projects in
anticipation of a non-OPEC slowdown in capacity growth."
Kuwait
and fellow Persian Gulf producer U.A.E. are also stepping up development
activity to cash in on strong demand, and in a departure of past
policies, the two are roping in the super-majors to help achieve
production targets.
The
U.A.E. is seeking to increase capacity to 3.5 million bpd in the
next few years from the current 2.5 million bpd.
Abdullah
Suwaidi, chairman of the exploration and development department
at state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), envisages
onshore output increasing by 200,000 bpd in the short term.
Development
of the New Dhabiya field will account for 110,000 bpd of the planned
increase, while a further 90,000 bpd will come from upgrading
the ageing Bab field.
In
the longer term, Adnoc plans to increase the output capacity of
its onshore fields to 1.8 million bpd.
Offshore,
Adnoc is looking to expand the capacity of its Umm Shaif and Lower
Zakum fields from the current 470,000 bpd to 600,000 bpd by the
end of 2008. Further expansion will come from the Zakum Development
Company (Zadco), which is currently pumping 550,000 bpd from the
offshore Upper Zakum.
Adnoc
has given super-major ExxonMobil a 28 percent stake in Upper Zakum
to help raise its capacity by 750,000 bpd.
Kuwait
is aiming to raise its current output capacity of 2.7 million
bpd to more than 4 million bpd by 2020 with the help of international
oil companies.
The
plan has an estimated cost of $40 billion. Achieving these lofty
output targets involves overcoming technical problems that need
the participation of major international oil companies.
One
plan is the controversial $7 billion Project Kuwait, which seeks
to involve super-majors in upgrading northern oilfields along
the Iraqi border.
Higher
oil prices are playing into the hands of those favoring a quick
approval of Project Kuwait as they turn up the heat on a reluctant
Parliament to endorse the scheme.
Kuwait
is offering an operating service agreement to foreign companies
to further develop four fields and bring their sustainable output
capacity to at least 900,000 bpd over 20 years. The fields are
expected to be producing about 700,000 bpd by the end of this
year, but Kuwaiti officials say they could not sustain those levels
in the long run.
Three
consortia led by BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil are competing for
the contract to upgrade the fields.
Iran
is also carrying out a number of projects, including the multibillion
dollar Azadegan field, which is being developed by Japanese companies.
However,
increments in the country are only likely to make up for annual
depletion rates of about 200,000 bpd.
Iran's
worsening ties with the U.S. are a serious obstacle to gaining
the participation of major oil companies in helping expand the
country's capacity above the current 4 million bpd level.
The
Daily Star (Lebanon) 08/08/05
Copyright © 2005 The Daily Star. All rights reserved
