Cartas
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Definición
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Jim
Saxton - Washington Times : U.S. as OPEC's hostage
Original Message
-----
From: Jose Prats
To: EnergiaVenezuela@yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thursday, November 24, 2005 6:01 AM
Subject: Jim Saxton - Washington Times : U.S. as OPEC's hostage
Este señor descubrió el agua tibia. A raíz
de tan trancedental descubrimiento, que acciones podria tomar
los EE.UU. para reducir su dependencia a corto plazo de crudo
de la OPEP y especialmente del Medio Oriente, la respuesta es
nada. En caso de que estuvieran pensando en invadir algún
otro país, es bueno recordar que la invasión de
Irak en vez de aumentar los suministros lo que ha logrado es reducirlos
a niveles inferiores a los existentes durante el embargo. Adicionalmente
no hay ningún escenario, que yo conozca, que logre reducir
significativamente la dependencia de de lo americanos en cuanto
al suministro de petróleo en el mediano y largo plazo,
sino todo lo contrario. Con lo anterior en mente, en mi opinión,
lo que deberian estar pensando los americanos y también
los europeos seria A) como evitar que ocurran interrupciones de
suministros, lo cual obviamente no es fácil, B) construir
refinerias nuevas y/o ampliar las existentes, C) construir nuevas
plantas de importación de LNG, D) construir VLCCs de doble
casco, E) propiciar aumento en la eficiencia del uso energético,
etc., en vez de lanzar amenazas veladas a los suplidores que son
tan críticos para la economía mundial. Con relación
a posibles cortes de producción de la OPEP, en un futuro
cercano, lo único razonable que podrían hacer seria
tratar de presionar a sus aliados sauditas, para que el corte
de producción se posponga y/o sea lo menor posible. Saludos
JP
Jim
Saxton
- Washington Times : U.S. as OPEC's hostage
Oil supply manipulation by Middle East belligerents and "allies"
alike is emerging as a significant threat to the security of the
United States and our economy. These oil oligarchs have identified
an "Achilles heel" and are aggressively trying to exploit
it. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by
Saudi Arabia, is at the forefront of this assault, targeting our
reliance on foreign oil.
If we do not
takes steps to address this dependence, there is a menacingly
high potential for economic dislocation and increased global instability.
As chairman
of the House Armed Services Terrorism and Unconventional Threats
Subcommittee and the Joint Economic Committee, it has become increasingly
apparent to me that our growing dependence on foreign oil gives
Middle East terrorists the opportunity to harm us without leaving
their lairs.
The Saudi-led
OPEC cartel possesses the economic equivalent of the atomic bomb,
with the potential to jeopardize our ability to rout terrorism
in the Middle East. Of course, methods are debated on how to remove
the oil weapon from OPEC. However, there's no debate about the
economic firepower they possess and the urgent need to disarm
them.
For three
decades, OPEC has manipulated the oil market. The Persian Gulf
countries sit on huge reserves of oil they can produce cheaply.
Major Middle Eastern protagonists, together with countries such
as Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia and Venezuela are part of
the cartel. These radical nations openly collude to restrict oil
output and raise prices far above costs.
From the end
of World War II until the oil embargo of 1973, Arabian Light crude
oil sold for less than $2.50 per barrel. Thirty years later, that
barrel has sold for more than $50.
This week
OPEC's price fell below $50 a barrel for the first time since
Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast. Already OPEC is urging
a production cut to offset the slide in demand.
They simply
extort the American people. Venezuela has already said OPEC needs
to cut its 30 million barrels per day to offset recovering U.S.
production from the Gulf of Mexico. Producers have grown used
to prices well above $50, but now openly fret high prices could
dampen demand and hurt economic growth.
Current known
oil reserves are estimated at 885 billion barrels for OPEC versus
393 billion barrels for non-OPEC producers. Yet OPEC produces
far less oil than non-OPEC countries: 32.9 million compared to
50 million barrels per day in 2004.
Since World
War II, most U.S. economic recessions have resulted from an oil
crisis. Beyond the immediate additional cost to the U.S. of about
$36 billion yearly, oil price rise has dampened U.S. economic
recovery and eats into President Bush's generous tax cuts.
The incentive
for producers to invest in substantially expanding output has
been artificially weakened by a cartel whose greatest concern
is a price collapse. When demand recedes and OPEC's cartel fractures,
the price can drop dramatically.
For example,
in 1997 OPEC raised its production ceiling 2.5 million barrels
per day to meet growing Asian demand. However the currency crisis
caused a fall. The result was a market price that dipped below
$10, the lowest level since 1973, and a $51 billion year-over-year
reduction in oil revenue.
There is plenty
of oil to satisfy demand. At its current rate of production, OPEC
would not run out for 75 years, and that assumes no additional
reserves are found. The oil price is high because OPEC has held
back output and not developed its vast oil fields. So the rest
of the world continues to watch what OPEC does.
The question
is whether and how much to invest in additional production, if
OPEC will substantially increase its supply and bring the price
down. This uncertainty slows U.S. and global investment and holds
America to ransom.
These premeditated
and at times criminal actions of the OPEC cartel and the Saudi
oil barons are formulated to create artificial scarcity and drive
up oil prices -- imposing undue hardships on Americans. In simple
terms, it is nothing but an ongoing clandestine campaign to increase
the cost to the American taxpayer of our assistance to Iraq, with
the specific objective of weakening U.S. resolve. If OPEC continues
manipulating supply, it will destabilize the world oil market
and threaten U.S. security at home.
Jim
Saxton,
New Jersey Republican, is chairman of the House Armed Services
Committee's Terrorism Subcommittee and of the Joint Economic Committee.
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
Petroleumworld
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